On December 19, 2017, bitcoin defied even the most optimistic price predictions to reach an all-time-high of $20,089. It was a dramatic end to an incredible year for bitcoin’s biggest advocates — the “bulls,” in finance lingo — helping to establish cryptocurrency trading as a legitimate piece of the global financial market. As 2017’s highs disappeared in the rear-view mirror, however, it became less clear that bitcoin’s price was going up any time soon.
So why are so many bitcoin bulls claiming that 2020 will be biggest year in bitcoin history? Is it just hype? Or is there a strong case to be made for record-setting BTC prices in 2020?
In this post, we’re taking a look at five reasons that bitcoin’s biggest boosters believe the next moonshot is just around the corner.
1. The 2020 “Halvening”: The single strongest argument for a 2020 BTC price rally comes from the indisputable fact that the reward for successfully mining a block on the bitcoin blockchain will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC at some point around the middle of May. Assuming the demand for bitcoin remains stable, the reduced supply of new BTC will likely cause the price to rise significantly. The last “halvening” took place in July of 2016, when the price was roughly $650. By July 2017, the price was around $6,500, and it was around $11,750 by July of 2019. If history repeats itself, the 2020 halvening could make many BTC bulls very, very rich.
2. Negative-Yield Bonds: The appeal of negative-yield bonds is hard to explain. It’s essentially a loan to the government, only instead of paying you interest on that loan, they promise to pay you back slightly less than they borrowed. That’s a bad deal, and yet an estimated $17 trillion is currently invested in negative-yield bonds. One theory about the rise of these opposite-day investments is that they reflect a looming global recession, where losing 1% of your investment in a loan to the government is less risky than investing in, say, the stock market. Bitcoin bulls are quick to note that an alternative, non-government backed store of value like BTC could prove to be a wiser investment.
3. Increased State-Level Cryptocurrency Adoption: What do Sweden, Russia, Dubai, South Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and China have in common? They are all currently testing some version of a state-sponsored digital currency designed specifically to compete with bitcoin. The global demand for cryptocurrency is clearly on the rise, and even government-backed currencies are feeling the heat. That’s a big, bullish signal.
4. Looming Global Recession: With Brexit uncertainty rattling Europe, the U.S. locked in a trade war with China, an inverted yield curve in the bond market, and an erratic stock market, there’s a very real chance that a worldwide recession is on the horizon. The last time this happened — the Great Recession of 2007 — governments around the world scrambled to keep the entire financial system from collapse, bailing out the very banks that caused the crisis. Bitcoin was created during the 2007-2008 financial crisis specifically to provide an alternative to the government-backed currency system, and it’s made a fairly strong case for itself in the last decade. If things really start to go sideways in the financial markets, the BTC bulls argue, it could prove to be the best investment out there.
5. The $1 Trillion BTC Price Prediction: If you zoom out from the daily trading charts, and take a long-term look at bitcoin’s price, it’s hard to ignore just how steadily the price has grown. There are plenty of booms and crashes, but the upwards price trend is undeniable. According to cryptocurrency researcher Plan B, if this trend continues unchanged into 2020, bitcoin’s market cap will reach $1 trillion — a little more than five times its current cap — resulting in a BTC price of around $55,000. This 500% increase may seem like a truly bullish perspective, but this kind of explosive growth is actually quite common in bitcoin’s history.